GLP-1s: The Other Great Economic Disruptor

For the past two years, artificial intelligence has been hailed as the great disruptive force shaking the very foundations of the global economy. That narrative isn't wrong, but all the talk about AI has crowded out the conversation around another great disruption happening right under our noses: GLP-1 drugs.

You probably know them by their brand names (Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound) and that they help people lose weight, but they’re actually doing a lot more than that and they’re just getting started.

A quick primer on how these drugs work

GLP-1 is a hormone your gut already produces. Its job is to tell your brain you're full. These drugs are synthetic versions that amplify that signal and sustain it, so you eat less and feel satisfied sooner.

What’s crazy is that the same brain circuitry that rewards you for eating also rewards you for drinking, smoking, and a range of other cravings. Early research suggests GLP-1s quiet all of it. Users report drinking less, snacking less, sometimes losing interest in the second cocktail entirely. At core, these aren't really weight-loss drugs — they're anti-craving drugs. And in an economy that’s built on generating and then satiating cravings, the consequences are huge.

The fallout

With millions of people suddenly craving less food and alcohol, most of the early casualties are exactly where you'd predict.

Fast food. NYU professor Scott Galloway notes that chains like Jack in the Box, Pizza Hut, and Wendy's are closing hundreds of locations, and there have been more than 500 franchisee bankruptcies this year. The mechanism is simple: GLP-1 users reportedly consume about a fifth fewer calories and spend nearly a third less on groceries. Margins in the fast food industry are quite small, and when you have fewer consumers and less upselling to larger sizes, these margins go away entirely.

Alcohol. Most brands you know are owned by a few big conglomerates. Diageo and Pernod Ricard have reported U.S. sales down roughly 15% year-over-year; Constellation Brands around 10%. There may be other factors such as tariffs, affordability, and Gen Z's apparent disinterest in alcohol, but the lion’s share is almost certainly GLP-1 related.

Clothing retailers. These companies may not have taken a huge hit to their bottom line, but they’re still seeing an interesting impact. Galloway cites an increase in online apparel returns where shoppers are "sizing down".

The Investment Play

The big players, Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), have already reaped huge profits from these drugs, and Pfizer (PFE) also has a GLP-1 in the pipeline after its acquisition of Metsera. The smart money got into these companies a long time ago. The good news is that if you own an index fund or something similar in your retirement account, you probably already own a piece of them.

The opportunity here is still huge. About 1 in 8 American adults have taken these drugs, but with an obesity rate near 40% the potential market is much larger. In April, the FDA approved the first GLP-1 in pill form, Foundayo, from Eli Lilly (LLY). This means that the patients who hate needles will now have an option.

One smaller player with greater potential upside is Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). They’re currently in Phase 3 clinical trials with VK2735, which would be available in both pill and injection form, and has shown promise in that it seems to be better tolerated than the options currently on the market. Obviously, this is a much higher risk play as it depends entirely on the success of VK2735, but analyst consensus is that an FDA approval here would send the stock much higher.

The bottom line

The potential in this sector is huge, and analysts keep raising targets as these companies continue to reap profits. J.P. Morgan estimates that the U.S. is on track for roughly 30 million GLP-1 users by 2030, up roughly 10 million from 2026 levels. Two forces are at play here: broader insurance coverage for these drugs, and their availability in pill form which will allow for easier administration.

Starting July 1, 2026, Medicare's new GLP-1 Bridge will give eligible Part D beneficiaries access to these drugs for weight loss at a flat $50 monthly copay, with a more permanent program (BALANCE) potentially becoming standard in 2027, which the CBO estimates could benefit 30 million people on Medicare alone.

These drugs, however, are expensive. The current options typically cost insurers $400-$700 a month, per patient. 15% of employers who offered them have dropped coverage due to unsustainable costs, and those costs will grow as more people are prescribed these meds. Most of these drugs will not be available in generic form until the 2030s, but at that point they’ll become much cheaper and their impact undoubtedly even wider.

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